We are winding down our presence in Afghanistan. Bases are being emptied and a lot of the stuff that we took over there is just going  into dump heaps after it is rendered useless. We will be guaranteed that legacy at least.

So what did we do there? I wonder that quite a bit. I spent almost a year there between 2011 and 2012. We conducted daily operations, executed missions, and fulfilled our marching orders. But to what end was it all?

I was based on a small FOB in Kandahar, pretty close to the middle of the city. We saw the locals just over the wall conducting their daily lives. They would go about feeding their goats and caring for their children under the sights of our watchtowers. Most of those towers were manned by locals, which was a blessing and a curse. They knew the cadence of the population, and could identify changes which was the blessing. The curse was that they always knew we were leaving.  This put loyalties on a sliding scale. If locals were too supportive of our presence, that could come back to haunt a man or his family when we left. That was the edge that Kandahar was living under, and probably the rest of the country as well.

Part of my duties were to attend weekly meetings with the provincial governor, and a separate weekly shura council. Those were the major political power centers in the province. Those two entities were often at odds, but one thing that they both wanted was money. They knew the US had it and was giving it out. In fact an entire false floored economy was built around it. If we sent a local out to get something the price was vastly different then if the US government came calling. In fact, lots of people wouldn’t even do business with us. They knew better than to undercut the leaders in the city.

Many of those leaders were the same people I met with on a weekly basis with the governor, or the council. These people were more than happy to coalesce around whatever power structure was in place. They could use it to gain prosperity and power for their family and tribe. And that is what really mattered in Afghanistan, the tribes.

Their true tribal allegiance was to themselves. They sought out money and power, and made and broke alliances based on who was the most likely to come out on top. The government that we set up was the equivalent to them of another tribe. If they were ascendant, they would have backers. If they look to be losing power, those once relied on friends will dissipate.

That is the nature of the Taliban. It is made up of tribes whose leaders want to either gain or remain in power as the US leaves. The tribal leaders will war with each other, vying for power just like they always have. The “foreign fighters” that show up during the fighting season often come from Waziristan. a largely lawless province in Pakistan, who have been part of the skirmishes for centuries. Many of them have relatives and friends in Afghanistan.

It shouldn’t be forgotten that the Afghan National Army has members who have come from these tribes. Many joined to get weapons and training from the government. The government has been training and paying them to hopefully be rewarded in turn by their loyalty. This is the most important hinge that the whole country swings on.

The government of Afghanistan has to have won loyalty from its forces stronger than the tribal, and in many cases, family ties that have defined its politics forever. If it hasn’t, we have to hope whoever comes out on top, doesn’t want us back there.